Not much of a bounce in the EUR. I guess someone either wants out or to get short. It is hard to assess the market reaction to the upcoming EU constitution vote. But given that the dollar is strong despite bad data I think the market is rendering its decision. [...]

With the EUR bouncing off the 3 year trend line, it is too early to make any decision one way or the other on reflation trades. What is strange is that the Canadian is still falling while Aussie and Kiwi dollars recover. The Dollar Index has predictably shied away from its February high [...]

With the Fed seemingly on track to remove accomodative stimulus, it is interesting to see that crude and products are down sharply today. EUR has also dropped smartly in the last hour. It is 1:02pm Central Daylight Time (despite what the post timer says which I will fix when I get a chance). [...]

The EUR did bounce. This should be an interesting week in the Energy complex. With one Papa heading to the afterlife one supposes, the financial Papa gave warm fuzzy feelings in remarks today at an energy confereence. I would expect heating oil to fall with warm weather finally arriving. [...]

The cash EUR is now nearly at the trend line I have from early 2002 which now comes in right around 1.28 even. Cash is right now at 1.2823. The 200 day moving average is at 1.2765. the50% retracement from the pre-breakout, pre-election low last august is right around 1.2819. [...]