bangpath http://www.bangpath.com thoughts for thinking people Thu, 08 Jul 2010 16:31:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 en hourly 1 Musings on the New Emperor http://www.bangpath.com/2010/07/08/musings-on-the-new-emperor/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/07/08/musings-on-the-new-emperor/#comments Thu, 08 Jul 2010 16:29:46 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=261 We used to take it on faith that an independent Judicial Branch and an independent Fed were important principles forming part of the foundation of trust in American institutions. So it is very disturbing to see the choreographed events taking place this past year in American politics. First we had the President of the United States in his State of the Union address, one of the most visible forums in politics, excoriating the Supreme Court, a co-equal branch of government, for one of its rulings (and one having to do with free political speech no less). Also note that it was a forum in which the accused did not have a possibility of replying to the slight. More recently, somehow the “President” had the Fed Chief, Helicopter Ben Bernanke at his side in the White House to back him up on what a wonderful job he and the Demunists were doing with the economy. I believe it was the first time a Fed Chief has been brought to heel in such a way, ever. Bernanke could not even bring himself to raise his eyes. He was supremely uncomfortanle, and so he should have been. Such a display of course begs the question of the Fed’s independence from political pressure. There is some correlation here with Gold breaching 1200/ounce in dollar terms and surpassing the price of the S&P500 index.

For some on the left the answer is to give Obama the dictatorial powers he craves so he can “fix” our problems with his omniscient set of advisers (who have the least real-world experience of any set of presidential advisers ever). One of these was Woody Allen I admit but one was Thomas Friedman, a supposedly serious journalist with the NY Times. Yeah, great idea. Is it any wonder that we have an ongoing crisis of confidence? Or that the public approval of its legislators is at its lowest ebb? Things will turn up once confidence returns. Confidence will return once these clowns (we actually elected an actual clown to the Senate from my home state, and from my own high school) are sent packing and the ratio of those who are minimally serious and competent in Washington rises above the 10% or so it numbers currently.

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Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar Should Resign Over BP Comments http://www.bangpath.com/2010/06/11/secretary-of-the-interior-ken-salazar-should-resign-over-bp-comments/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/06/11/secretary-of-the-interior-ken-salazar-should-resign-over-bp-comments/#comments Fri, 11 Jun 2010 18:12:31 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=249 Ken Salazar Image
Yesterday it was reported that Ken Salazar, the Secretary of the Interior of the United States actually said that he would ask BP to repay the salaries of any workers laid off because of the six month moratorium on deepwater exploratory drilling imposed by the government.  So let me get this straight.  BP cuts some corners and suffers a blowout of the well they were drilling in deep water which under tremendous pressure is now spewing much oil into the Gulf of Mexico and fouling the coast, affecting the livelihoods of many people.  This much we know and I think everyone would agree that BP should pay for the effect they are having on peoples livelihoods as they are impacted by the presence of the oil.  And as a result the United States government imposes a halt on further drilling in order to create new regulations or something so other blowouts do not happen.  As if the operators of other rigs are not already reviewing their operations to avoid the fate of BP, which is going to fork over tens if not hundreds of billons in revenue to pay for their spill.  The moratorium is going to result in the layoffs of thousands of people working on these rigs.

Now comes the Secretary of he Interior, a cabinet official of the United States, appointed by the President. He apparently suggests in all seriousness that BP pay the salaries of those laid off because the US Government overreacts and stops all drilling?  This is so far outside what would be reasonable, so absolutely outrageous in its audacity and idiocy, that Ken Salazar should resign immediately or be fired by the President. You just cannot make this stuff up.  One more example of the horrifying lack of seriousness and gravitas of those who represent the interests of the polity in Washington.  To the right is a picture of this buffoon.

Of course what I have heard no one mention is that one of the great tragedies of this blown well is that we are losing all this oil! Jim Cramer was just on saying that his “oil people” are telling him this crude deposit is one of the greatest finds of all time. That is why the pressure is unmanageable. And it is all flowing out into the Gulf at this point. What a waste.


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Watch Out Below http://www.bangpath.com/2010/06/06/watch-out-below/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/06/06/watch-out-below/#comments Mon, 07 Jun 2010 02:37:25 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=240 When the US Employment Situation Report came out Friday, the 41k private payroll print shocked the bulls. An interesting divergence appeared. Normally a weak payroll print in relation to expectations would cause the currency in question, the US Dollar in this case, to weaken substantially. But in fact the opposite took place. The Dollar rallied hard against all but the Yen. The EUR plunged to new cycle lows, the Aussie and Loonie also fell out of bed. This indicates to me that the market has assumed a crash mentality. Risk off. Big time. And with the US approaching 100% Debt to GDP by some calculations (there is a great deal of debate over what is the appropriate debt to measure; does it include off balance sheet liabilities like social security, pensions and medicare for instance? Does it matter what is owed to other parts of the government?  What part is domestic versus foreign held?) if the idea crystallizes in the trading community that the US has crossed the magic line past which it cannot make good its debt without massive dollar printing, you will see a dollar crash, an equity crash and a bond crash simultaneously.  Is that when Gold would go to $3000? Odds? Higher than is comfortable. See the CBO Reestimate of the President’s Budget here.   The chart below can be found here.   I found the link at at he Fundmastery Blog at Marketwatch here.   And I found the link to that at Real Clear Markets.   And remember that when all is said and done, when 2020 rolls around, even these numbers will almost certainly prove to be too low.   Scary stuff.

cbo-2010-projected_deficit

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National Security Imperative: Do Not Full Stop at Stop Signs http://www.bangpath.com/2010/05/26/national-security-imperative-do-not-full-stop-at-stop-signs/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/05/26/national-security-imperative-do-not-full-stop-at-stop-signs/#comments Wed, 26 May 2010 17:19:21 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=233 I am in the habit of rolling through most stop signs at 4 way stops. I used to come to pretty much a full stop. But then I thought about the following.   The U.S. imported 1.2 Million barrels of oil per day from Saudi Arabia in 2009. At $70 per barrel (that may be a bit high, Saudi crude is relatively sour or heavy and so probably commands less than the price for WTI), that comes out to $84 Million per day, or about $31 Billion per year. The Saudis use some of this money to support their anti-western Wahhabist religious hate factories. These people want to kill us. They enslave their female population. It is a nasty place. This money is just from the United States. The Saudi take is much much more when you consider their exports to other countries. We and others also send massive numbers of dollars to other unsavory places like Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria, and other Middle Eastern locations. These nations are opposed to us and our way of life. It seems to me that we have an acute National Security Interest in using as little Crude and Crude products (like gasoline) as possible.

Now it is also pretty obvious that much of the gas you burn in your car is used in overcoming the inertia represented by the sizable mass of your vehicle at a full stop. So it stands to reason that if you did not come to a full stop where possible, you would use much less fuel. And if everyone did this, we could save millions of barrels of crude oil annually. Therefore we would send many fewer dollars abroad annually to people who want to kill us. It therefore seems that we should, as a matter of policy and law, treat all stop signs as slow down signs where possible.

Some may object that this would increase the number of accidents. It might. But I think people are smart enough that they will stop at intersections that pose a danger but can keep some of their momentum at intersections where there is clearly no other car or bike or pedestrian approaching. In any event, police departments could be trained not to issue rolling stop citations unless the motorist actually presented a danger to someone else.

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Jobs! Jobs? http://www.bangpath.com/2010/05/20/jobs-jobs/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/05/20/jobs-jobs/#comments Thu, 20 May 2010 17:12:37 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=231 I always sort of a grimly chuckle when I hear a politician on the tube say something like “Our focus is now entirely on creating jobs.” Politicians may be just about the stupidest creatures on our shared Earth, but they do know one thing. When people feel economically insecure, they tend to vote against those currently holding the levers of power, whether they are responsible or not for the state of affairs leading to the insecurity. So when they say they are focused on jobs, they are really saying they are focused on getting reelected.

In a market economy, it is not the responsibility of the government to provide jobs (a statement with which nearly everyone agrees, freaks from places like moveon.org notwithstanding). It is the responsibility of the government to provide an environment in which the people of the country can go about their business, which will collaterally result in creating jobs. So the government takes care of the national defense and provides an impartial system for the adjudication of disputes, which in our country is predicated on applying the same set of rules to similarly situated people similarly (unless you are a demunist, in which case the rules get applied depending on whether you are in one of their identified support groups or not, the nub of identity politics). This is something that statists, redistributionists and collectivists like Barack Obama and his Demunistic brethren fail to understand. The more they do to create jobs, the less likely it is that we will have sustainable job growth. They are destroyers. They destroy. If they really wanted to see jobs created, the best thing they can do is get the government the hell out of the way.

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Soybeans Wound Up http://www.bangpath.com/2010/03/29/soybeans-wound-up/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/03/29/soybeans-wound-up/#comments Tue, 30 Mar 2010 04:11:37 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=224 From the pre-harvest low near $5.25 in September 2006 to the monster blow-off high of $16.63 in July 2008, Beans more than tripled in price.   Then in a mere 5 months as the world was crashing in 2008, they lost more than half their value to a low of about $7.75, a drop of nearly $9.   Through 2009 and into 2010 they have established an equilibrium centering right around $10/bushel, closing today at $9.67 1/2.  The planting intentions report is due out day after tomorrow before the market opens.  The thinking is that Beans will pick up acres formerly devoted to wheat setting up a large crop on top of massive crops coming out of Brazil and Argentina.  What is most interesting to me is that the oscillation around the current equilibrium has narrowed, which implies that the market is about to break out one way or the other to a new equilibrium range. Odds are it will fall out the bottom.  See the chart for yourself.

29 March 2010 Soybeans Continuous
Click me (Soybeans Daily)!

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El Presidente Believes His Own Bullsh*t http://www.bangpath.com/2010/03/25/el-presidente-believes-his-own-bullsht/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/03/25/el-presidente-believes-his-own-bullsht/#comments Thu, 25 Mar 2010 21:40:56 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=218 After consigning the American experiment to the ash heap of history by arrogantly and brazenly cramming government control of health care down all of our throats against our will, Mr Obama is really feeling his oats.  Reuters reports of El Presidente:

President Barack Obama dared Republicans on Thursday to try to repeal his newly signed healthcare law… I don’t believe the American people are going to put the insurance industry back in the driver’s seat. We’ve been there already. We’re not going back.

Riiiggghhht.  Because all of those 85% of people who are satisfied with their current health insurance arrangement would rather have the government in the driver’s seat than their insurance company.  A sick and twisted mind it is.   He actually thinks that it is preferable to have your health care dictated by the government, against whom there is no appeal and who wields the sovereign right of extortion (it is called taxation, and is in the end backed up by force), than a private company that you can fire or sue.  Simply amazing.  My mouth just gapes open when I hear this kind of stuff.

In a related bit of news reported here,  a Harris Poll, aptly critiqued for its methodological shoddiness by James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal here, apparently finds 25% of Republicans think Obama is the AntiChrist.  I am not a Republican, though I have never voted for a Demunist in any election for any office, and I never will.  I also do not believe there is an AntiChrist.  But if there were an AntiChrist, I think Mr. Obama might just fit the bill.  Certainly he will be remembered that way once the whole house of cards comes crashing down because he threw the wet towel of state on top of it.

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Anecdotal Evidence of Economic Weakness http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/25/anecdotal-evidence-of-economic-weakness/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/25/anecdotal-evidence-of-economic-weakness/#comments Thu, 25 Feb 2010 14:59:33 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=212 There is no number to convey what I have perceived in the last couple of months but the signal nevertheless seems too strong to ignore.  I take my daughter to Tae Kwon Do near downtown Chicago two or three days a week from further north on the Interstate.  I do this after school so it is about 4:30 or so.  The height of rush hour.  IDOT has helpfully placed signs that indicate how long it takes to get to the Loop from between Irving Park Rd and Addison.  Back in 2007 and even in 2008, this sign at this time of day might say 26 minutes or even 30 minutes to the Circle as they call it.

These days I have seen it as low as 8 minutes and regularly under 20 minutes.  Instead of bumping along at 5-15 MPH, I am hitting 70 and rarely under 20.  This has been going on now for some months.  Which indicates to me that there are very many fewer cars and trucks on the road into Downtown Chicago.  This further implies then that there is less shipping being done and fewer people going to or going home from work.  So when I see blow hards talking about a V-shaped recovery in the economy and how we will see 1300 in the S&P 500 this year, I have to scratch my head.  I told my father in November 2007 he should go to cash.  I also told him in November 2009 that he should go to cash because the S&P would stall somewhere between 1150 and 1200.  It barely hit 1150, but it was around 1150 for about a week, ample opportunity to lighten a portfolio.  I wrote him on Feb 18th to say that the recent bounce up from near 1040 to 1110 was another opportunity to get out.  I expect that this year we will be testing lows from last year as there is a new wave of Mortgage resets and foreclosures to come over the next 2 years.

Look at the chart below from T2 Partners via Amherst Securities.  Note how the market climbed as we were in the trough.  We are now climbing the hill.  The market is not going higher.

mortgagePayShock

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Why Republicans Should Fear Thursdays Health Care Summit http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/21/why-republicans-should-fear-thursdays-health-care-summit/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/21/why-republicans-should-fear-thursdays-health-care-summit/#comments Sun, 21 Feb 2010 20:03:06 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=209 In watching the Sunday talking head shows today, I saw some footage of Mitt Romney saying something foolish at the recent CPAC dinner.  He said that the Stimulus Package passed by Democrats in 2009 “added not one net new job to the American economy”.  Hmm.  I know what he was trying to say.  But what he said was something else.  What he was trying to say and should have said was something like “The Stimulus Bill may have produced some jobs, and we are happy for those families who are now employed.  But the cost per job for each of those jobs, which will be paid for by American Taxpayers, was much more than what the employed people will benefit.  And in the end, the economy as a whole will be less well off than if those jobs had been provided by the private economy because they did not have to pay the taxes it cost to create those government provided jobs.  The economy would be better off, on the whole, if the money was left in the private economy rather than washed through the inefficient hands of government.”  Of course with some more wordsmithing I am sure this could be made more pithy.

Instead he said that no jobs were created.  Now the average American will look at a statement like that and say to themselves, “um, obviously it did create some jobs.  This must be one of those nay-saying Republicans (like the media says) saying something demonstrably untrue that anyone can see at a glance is probably false.  So I guess we cannot trust those guys either.”  And of course the Left will run with such a statement to prove that Republicans are lying idiots.

Which brings us to Thursday’s trap setup.  Obviously Obama is trying to lay a trap to make Republicans look bad on Health Care.  If Republicans go into it with thoughtless language like Romney used at CPAC then they are going to get their hats handed to them and blunt the force they have going into the mid-terms in 8 months.  Hopefully whoever winds up going will take a page from the recent editorial by Newt Gingrich, which laid out a number of ideas for handling health care reform, and be well-prepared enough on why the Left’s ideas are dangerous not to sink the party’s fortunes this fall.

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Why Does America Ignore the Obvious Problem with Entitlements? http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/17/why-does-america-ignore-the-obvious-problem-with-entitlements/ http://www.bangpath.com/2010/02/17/why-does-america-ignore-the-obvious-problem-with-entitlements/#comments Wed, 17 Feb 2010 18:44:37 +0000 t0mmy berg http://www.bangpath.com/?p=203 With all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over the Federal Budget our Dear Leader the Obamanator proposed recently, you occasionally hear the solution mentioned but it is rarely discussed and Congress turns it’s back (for example by voting unanimously to keep entitlements off the table when considering how not to bankrupt the country).  It seems to me the solution is just plain obvious.  When Social Security was conceived, the government was assuming the obligation to pay some piddling amount for what was an expectation of something like 2 years per person.  This was because the average life expectancy at the time was about 2 years more than the age at which the government would start paying benefits. A similar dynamic is at work with Medicare.

In the meantime, America’s  great medical entrepreneurs and doctors and scientists (some from outside America too) have figured out how to extend our lives to the point where we are now living not 2 – but 15, 20 or 30 years past the point where the government starts paying benefits.   So we need to either decrease life expectancies, which seems rather evil, or move the retirement age out to be in line with our ever-increasing life spans.  The blunder the government made at program inception (and one they seem to make with every program in one way or another, do they not ever learn anything?) was not to index the age at which benefits start to life expectancy.  It is just as stupid as not indexing other benefits for inflation.  The Germans have already taken steps to address this.  Are we less capable than Germany?  The obvious solution is to move the retirement age out to be more in line with increased life expectancy.  Is that so hard?  See here for a discussion of how some countries have done this.

Instead we have Demunists trying to take over health care which will have the nearly immediate effect of reducing life expectancies.  While that might help in the long run, it is not the optimal solution I would submit.  And it does not address the other driver of our entitlement crisis, the fact that health costs rise faster than economic growth.  It actually makes it worse.  The country senses this.  Is it any wonder that Commocrats will get wiped up in the fall elections?  Not that I trust the Republicans to do the right thing.   But with them any legislation will likely be only marginally destructive rather than utterly destructive as it will be under the Demunists.

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